Central Bank of Russia In the report published by San Francisco, forecasts for the economy of the country under the shadow of the sanctions covering the next three years and based on three different scenarios were included.
In the report, where it was stated that the Russian economy will shrink between 6 and 8 percent this year in the basic scenario, it was noted that the economy will shrink by 4 to 6 percent next year, and will grow between 1.5 and 2.5 percent in 2024 and 2025.
In the report, which pointed out that the main target of the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Russia is to keep inflation at 4 percent, it was emphasized that the said inflation target would be reached within 1.5 years and changes would be made in the interest rate accordingly.
Reminding that the interest rate, which was increased to 20 percent in February, was reduced to 8 percent at the end of July, it was emphasized that the interest rate in the country is expected to be at the level of 5 to 6 percent in 2025.
Negative scenario evaluations titled “Global crisis” were also included in the report.
Accordingly, in the report, which pointed out that a crisis similar to the 2008 crisis may be experienced in the global economy, “An economic and financial crisis may begin in the global economy on a scale similar to the 2007-2008 crisis. The onset of such a global crisis could lead to the continued severity of restrictions on Russian exports.” assessment was included.
In the report, it was predicted that in the event of a global crisis, high inflation would become permanent, as a result, a recession would occur and sanctions against Russia would increase.
In the report, where the positive scenario was also evaluated under the title of “Accelerated adaptation”, it was stated that in this case, the inflation in the country would decrease to 4 percent in 2024.
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