Although the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday in the USA was below market expectations, the Fed is expected to maintain its hawkish stance in the face of inflation rates, which are at the highest in recent years.
US inflationWhile the decline in energy and fuel prices has forced investors to be cautious, it is estimated that the Fed will want to see a similar decrease in non-energy prices in order to abandon its ultra-hawk stance.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in her statements yesterday, stated that she found a 50 basis point interest rate increase in the main scenario for the September meeting, but that she would support a 75 basis point interest increase if necessary. Daly also reminded that it is too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation.
On Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also gave directions, stating that they are maintaining their hawkish stance.
While it is estimated that the Fed will increase interest rates by 50 basis points with a 65 percent probability at the September meeting in the pricing in the money markets, the probability of a 75 basis point interest rate increase continues to be alive with 35 percent.
While the bond markets followed a sales-weighted course with the aforementioned developments, the 10-year bond yield of the US rose by about 10 basis points to 2.89 percent. Even though the inverting yield curve in US bonds maintains its prominent stance, the yield difference between the US 10-year bond yield and 3-month treasury bills has increased to 31 basis points, showing that recession pricing has receded, albeit to a limited extent.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index depreciated by 0.07 percent and the Nasdaq index depreciated by 0.58 percent, while the Dow Jones index rose by 0.08 percent yesterday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with an increase.
On the European side, the stock markets followed a mixed course in parallel with the New York stock market yesterday. The euro/dollar parity carried its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day and closed the day with an increase of 0.2 percent at 1.0318, while it remains flat on the new day.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK and the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.55 percent and the DAX 40 index decreased by 0.05 percent, while the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.33 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.69 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.
A cautious course stands out in Asian stock markets today.
While the Japanese stock market, which was closed yesterday due to the holiday, increased by more than 2 percent today, making up for Thursday, a low risk appetite is striking in the Chinese stock market after an important production center in China was quarantined due to the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index increased by 2.5 percent in Japan, Kospi index increased by 0.07 percent in South Korea and the Hang Seng index increased by 0.4 percent in Hong Kong, while Shanghai composite index increased by 0.1 percent in China. lost value.
The BIST 100 index, which improved its domestic record of the highest level it saw yesterday to 2,877.60 points, broke the closing record by completing the day at 2,868.44 points, 1.37 percent above its previous closing.
Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 17.9510 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 17.9466 with an increase of 0.4 percent yesterday.
Analysts today, domestically, industrial production and the Market Participants Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), growth in the UK, industrial production and foreign trade balance, industrial production in the Eurozone and the University of Michigan consumer confidence in the USA. Stating that the index data will be followed, he said that technically, 2.880 and 2.900 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of resistance and 2.830 points are in the support position.
Economists participating in the survey conducted by AA Finans expect the calendar adjusted industrial production index to increase by 6.9 percent in June compared to the same period of the previous year.
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